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Tropical Depression 22W threatens to trigger flooding across the Philippines into Friday before taking aim at southeastern China and northern Vietnam later this weekend and early next week. Tropical downpours will accompany the newly-formed tropical storm as it pushes across the northern half of the Philippines from east to west into Friday. “The swath of heaviest rain is expected to be across southern and central Luzon with many areas getting 75-150 mm (3-6 inches) of rain through Friday,” he continued. “Manila and Baguio are both included in this area.” Isolated totals of 300 mm (12 inches) are not out of the question.

While the mountainous terrain of Luzon should force the tropical storm to weaken back to a depression later Friday, it should regain strengthen as it crosses the warm waters of the South China Sea this weekend. Disruptive wind shear will not hinder the storm’s ability to strengthen into a typhoon by Sunday. “During this time, a continued track to the west-northwest is expected,” Douty said. “Areas from northern Vietnam to southern Guangxi and far southwestern Guangdong in China are all at risk for significant impacts.” Among the cities that are being put on alert for potential impacts later this weekend or early next week include Zhenjiang and Haikou, China, and Hai Phong and Hanoi, Vietnam.